• NUOR SEMINAR
  • Speaker: Dr Leo Lopes, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University
  • Title: Applications of Scenario Trees Old and New: Electricity Pricing and Epidemiology
  • Location: Room V206, Mathematics Building (Callaghan Campus) The University of Newcastle
  • Access Grid Venue: RMIT
  • Time and Date: 3:30 pm, Wed, 16th Jun 2010
  • Abstract:

    Scenario Trees are compact representations of processes by which information becomes available. They are most commonly used when solving stochastic optimization problems with recourse, but they have many other uses. In this talk we discuss two uses of scenario trees: computing the value of hydroelectricity in a regulated market; and updating parameters of epidemiological models based on observations of syndromic data. In the former, we investigate the impact that the size and shape of the tree has on the dual price of the first stage demand constraint. In the latter, we summarize a simulation of epidemics and syndromic behaviors on a tree, then identify the subtree most likely to match observed data.


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