- CARMA COLLOQUIUM
- Speaker: Steve Mohr, School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle
- Title: Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions
- Location: Room V129, Mathematics Building (Callaghan Campus) The University of Newcastle
- Time and Date: 4:00 pm, Thu, 19th Aug 2010
Historically, fossil fuels have been vital for our global energy needs. However climate change is prompting renewed interest in the role of fossil fuel production for our energy needs. In order to appropriately plan for our future energy needs, a new detailed model of fossil fuel supply is required. The modelling applied an algorithm-based approach to predict both supply and demand for coal, gas, oil and total fossil fuel resources. Total fossil fuel demand was calculated globally, based on world population and per capita demand; while production was calculated on a country-by-country basis and summed to obtain global production. Notably, production over the lifetime of a fuel source was not assumed to be symmetrical about a peak value like that depicted by a Hubbert curve. Separate production models were developed for mining (coal and unconventional oil) and field (gas and conventional oil) operations, which reflected the basic differences in extraction and processing techniques. Both of these models included a number of parameters that were fitted to historical production data, including: (1) coal for New South Wales, Australia; (2) gas from the North Sea, UK; and (3) oil from the North Sea, UK, and individual state data from the USA.
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