AMSI Access Grid Seminar

4:00 pm

Friday, 17th May 2013

V206, Mathematics Building


Prof Adrian Baddeley

(CSIRO and the University of Western Australia)

Analysing Random Events on a Network

Spatial patterns of events that occur on a network of lines, such as traffic accidents recorded on a street network, present many challenges to a statistician. How do we know whether a particular stretch of road is a "black spot", with a higher-than-average risk of accidents? How do we know which aspects of road design affect accident risk? These important questions cannot be answered satisfactorily using current techniques for spatial analysis. The core problem is that we need to take account of the geometry of the road network. Standard methods for spatial analysis assume that "space" is homogeneous; they are inappropriate for point patterns on a linear network, and give fallacious results. To make progress, we must abandon some of the most cherished assumptions of spatial statistics, with far-reaching implications for statistical methodology.

The talk will describe the first few steps towards a new methodology for analysing point patterns on a linear network. Ingredients include stochastic processes, discrete graph theory and classical partial differential equations as well as statistical methodology. Examples come from ecology, criminology and neuroscience.